With the draft lottery tomorrow, its time for us to do a brief preview of the lottery process and possible outcomes.

Brandon Roy Poses After Winning the 2007 Draft Lottery. Picture Courtesy of Thescore.com

The Basics:

Date/Time: 5:30 PM, Tuesday, May 21, 2013.

TV: ESPN/ESPN3 online.

The Lottery Process:

On the day of the draft lottery, about an hour before the lottery results are broadcast the actual lottery is conducted.  The actual lottery is conducted backstage by the accounting firm Ernst and Young with representatives from each team present.  These representatives are forbidden from communicating the results with anyone until after they are aired.

14 lottery balls are used for this draw, and the order in which they are drawn does not matter. This creates 1,001 possible outcomes, one of which is kept as an empty set and the other 1,000 are assigned to teams.  Each team receives a set number of winning combinations based on their record, the detailed odds chart for this year’s lottery is below:

Notes:

a-Portland’s pick goes to Charlotte if it falls outside the top 12.  Odds of Portland retaining pick 99.9%

b-Toronto’s pick goes to OKC if its not in the top 3.  Odds of Toronto retaining pick: 3% 

Here is the process, step by step:

1. 14 lottery balls, numbered 1-14, are placed in a standard lottery machine.
2. The balls are allowed to circulate for 20 seconds before the first ball is drawn, the next three balls are drawn at 10 second intervals.
3. Lottery officials check to see who owns the resulting combination, if it is not the empty set the owner of that combination receives the #1 overall pick.
4. The process is repeated twice more for the #2 and #3 picks.  If a team which has already won a pick gets one of its combinations drawn (or the empty set), the process is repeated until three distinct winners are found.  No team this year may win more than one top three pick since no one has multiple lottery picks.
5. The remainder of the lottery teams are ordered in the reverse of their record, with the worst team that didn’t win a pick getting the fourth selection, the second worst fifth and so on.

So grab your lucky token, whatever it is, and hope that the Blazers can beat the odds to get a top 3 pick!

Team Records: Golden State (46-35) at Portland (33-48)

Game Info: 7:30 PM-TV on KGW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: Golden State -8

Refs: Bill Spooner, Violet Palmer, Leon Wood

The Skinny: The Blazers look to head into the offseason with a win and end their long losing streak as they face the Warriors to close out their 2012-13 campaign.  The Warriors need the win to ensure them of the #6 seed in the west and a likely matchup with Denver.   

Last Time They Met: Steph Curry was awesome and the Blazers had no chance as Golden State rolled.

Projected Warriors Lineup:

PF-David Lee (Florida-8^th Season) 18.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.6 APG.

SF-Harrison Barnes (North Carolina-Rookie)-9.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.2 APG.

C-Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt-Rookie)-2.5 PPG, 4 RPG, .3 APG

SG-Klay Thompson (Washington State-2^nd Season)-16.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG.

PG-Stephen Curry (Davidson-4^th Season)-23 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 6.9 APG.

Image Courtesy of NBA.com

Player to Watch-David Lee (pictured at right) – Confidence is not a problem for David Lee, who firmly believes he has deserved to be an all-star for several years.  He has made it twice and has complained mightily when he didn’t.  Lee is a very good player on offense, can make shots anywhere from midrange to close to the rim and is a nice counterpoint to Golden State’s plethora of outside shooters. He is an excellent rebounder at both ends as well.  His defense leaves a lot to be desired but for a team that is so strong offensively this hardly matters.

Did You Know?: Golden State will make the playoffs this year for only the second time in the least nineteen years.

Song of the Day: “Good Riddance (Time of Your Life)” by Green Day-A fitting song as we bid goodbye to another Blazers season.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), Doubtful- SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), PG Nolan Smith (Knee), Questionable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

Golden State: Out- SG Brandon Rush (ACL/MCL), C Andris Biedrins (Back), Questionable-C Andrew Bogut (Ankle), SF Draymond Green (Knee).

Re-Evaluating Golden State: Playoff Bound at Last

Golden State has great fans and they have been fun to watch but they haven’t sniffed the playoffs much in the past two decades, making it only once in the eighteen seasons prior to this one (which ended with a surprise second round run after upsetting Dallas).  Whether or not they make a deep run this year, they look to not have to wait as long between appearances this time.  With their young core, it looks like Golden State is here to stay as far as the playoffs go.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if:  They make their 3 pointers.  The Warriors are a stingy team from deep and as Portland relies heavily on the 3, if they can make their deep shots, they should be able to end the season with a win.

Golden State wins if: They hold Portland under 100 points.  The Warriors are going to score a lot of points and at their pace if they can keep Portland under the century mark, they should win.

Team Records: Portland (33-47) at LA Clippers (54-26)

Game Info: 7:30 PM-TV on TNT, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: LA Clippers -14

Refs: Ron Garretson, Sean Corbin, Eric Dalen

The Skinny:  The Blazers face their final road game of the season as they travel to LA to take on the first-time division champ Clippers.  The Clippers are still fighting for playoff positioning, needing a win to maintain control of home court advantage in the first round.

Last Time They Met: The Clippers got revenge for a loss the previous night in the second half of a home and home as they pulled away from Portland early and coasted to an easy win.

Projected Clippers Lineup:

PF-Blake Griffin (Oklahoma-3^rd Season) 18.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.8 APG.

SF-Caron Butler- (Connecticut-11^th Season)-10.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1 APG.

C-DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M-5^th  Season)-8.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, .4 APG

SG-Willie Green (Detroit Mercy-10^th Season)-6.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG, .8 APG.

PG-Chris Paul (Wake Forest-8^th Season)-17 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 9.6 APG.

Image Courtesy of usatoday.com

Player to Watch-Chris Paul (pictured at right) – There is a reason Chris Paul is jokingly referred to by some as the “Point God”, he’s simply the best point guard in the game today.  CP3 is pretty much great at everything he does, whether it is ball handling, passing, shooting or forcing steals.  About the only thing he doesn’t do extremely well is rebound, but considering that he has Jordan and Griffin on this team, that is hardly a problem. You can think you have him beat only to watch Chris Paul pull out some weird jujitsu that makes you look on in awe.  If the Clippers are going to make any sort of playoff run, it will be because of CP3.

Did You Know?: The Clippers won their first-ever division title this year.

Song of the Day: “More Than a Feeling” by Boston.  In honor of the victims of Monday’s Boston bombings, it seemed appropriate to play the signature song of one of that city’s best known bands.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), Doubtful- SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), PG Nolan Smith (Knee), Questionable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

LA Clippers: Questionable-PG Chauncey Billups (Groin).

Re-Evaluating the Clippers: Living in the Shadow of the Lakers

When the Clippers won their first-ever division title recently, their fans rightly celebrated but were perhaps just as rightly mocked by the Lakers, who pointed out that they had won sixteen NBA titles and that their fellow Staples Center occupants really hadn’t accomplished much.  While it is true that the Clippers will never equal the Lakers history, their winning tradition, or even their vaunted “celebrity row”, they should take pride in living in the moment and perhaps take a little guide from Manchester City of the EPL.  When City won its first ever premier league title last season, their fans reveled in the rare moment where they put one over on the most successful club in world soccer history, Manchester United, which had won twelve Premier League titles.  To City fans, and to Clippers fans should they ever win one, it did not matter that their rival had more of a winning tradition than they could ever hope to achieve, what mattered is that at that time, in that moment, they were on top of their sport and could finally look down on their far more heralded rivals.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if:  They score 100 points.  The Blazers often struggle offensively on the road.  Still if they can somehow get to 100 points, it should be enough to get the win.

LA Clippers win if: They make their 3s.   When the Clippers make their 3s they are nearly impossible to beat.

Team Records: Portland (33-46) at Denver (54-25)

Game Info: 2 p.m., TV on CSNNW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM

Vegas Line: Denver -14

Refs: Monty McCutchen, Derrick Collins, Kevin Fehr

The Skinny: The Blazers begin their final road trip of the season in perhaps the most difficult place to win in the entire NBA, Denver.  Fresh off yet another loss, the Blazers must now face a Nuggets squad that has won 21 straight home games and last lost at home on January 18 to the Wizards of all teams.  Denver needs a win to maintain control of the #3 seed.   

Last Time They Met: Andre Miller got the last laugh in Portland as he nailed a big shot to give Denver the lead late as they held on for a rare road win for a team in this series.   

Projected Nuggets Lineup:

PF: Kenneth Faried (Morehead State, 2^nd season) – 11.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1 APG

SF: Wilson Chandler (DePaul, 5^th season) – 12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.3 APG

C: Kosta Koufos (Ohio State, 5^th season) – 8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, .4 APG

SG: Andre Iguodala (Arizona, 9^th season) – 12.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.4 APG

PG: Andre Miller (Utah, 14^th season) – 9.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 6 APG

Image Courtesy of NBA.com

Player to Watch: Andre Miller (pictured below) – Every year it seems people wonder how long Andre Miller can keep his career going at the same level and every year he just keeps plodding along, doing good things.  This year is no exception as Andre Miller is never going to light the NBA on fire but he’s going to be there, making crazy ally oop passes and providing solid plays at both ends of the court.  With Lawson coming back from an injury, having a player like Andre Miller will help the Nuggets greatly as they approach and enter the playoffs.

Did You Know?: Portland head coach Terry Stotts began his coaching career under George Karl as an assistant with the Albany Patroons of the CBA in 1990-91.

Song of the Day: “Crazy Train” by Ozzy Ozbourne-In honor of JaVale McGee being a crazy yet fun to watch player for the Nuggets.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out – SG Elliott Williams (Achilles), SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), Questionable-SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle).

Denver: Out-SF Danilo Gallinari (ACL), PG Julyan Stone (Knee), Questionable-PG Ty Lawson (Plantar Fascitis).

Re-Evaluating Denver: Home Court May Not be Needed for These Nuggets

You’d think a veteran team like Denver might well be able to win a series even if they don’t have home court.  In Denver’s case that might actually be correct because, despite their dominance at home, they have done a good job beating good teams on the road.  Denver has wins over most of the West’s playoff teams this season, including two over possible first round opponent Houston.  So if Denver can manage to steal one game on the road, given how strong they are at home, they have a chance at beating anyone in the playoffs this year.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They limit Denver’s fast break points. Denver loves to run out on the break and Portland has had a hard time stopping that at times this year.  If they can limit Denver to a half-court offense, they will stand a strong chance of winning.

Denver wins if: They score at least 100 points. Denver is the sort of team that can simply outscore you.  If the Nuggets hit the century mark, that will almost certainly be enough to secure Denver a win.

Team Records: Oklahoma City (58-21) at Portland (33-45)

Game Info: 7 p.m., TV on CSNNW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: OKC -9.5

Refs: Danny Crawford, Eli Roe, Eddie F Rush

The Skinny: The Blazers look to bounce back from a hard fought loss to the Lakers and avoid a winless five game homestand against the West-leading Thunder.  OKC holds a very narrow lead over the Spurs for the top seed in the Western Conference and is coming off an impressive road win over the Warriors Thursday night.

Last time they met: The Blazers held on until a late OKC run buried them in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.  

Projected Thunder Lineup:

PF: Serge Ibaka (Congo, 4^th season) – 13.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, .6 APG

SF: Kevin Durant (Texas, 6^th season) – 28.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.5 APG

C: Kendrick Perkins (Clifton J. Ozen (HS), 10^th season) – 4.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.5 APG

SG: Thabo Sefolosha (Switzerland, 7^th season) – 7.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.6 APG

PG: Russell Westbrook (UCLA, 5^th season) – 23.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 7.5 APG

Image Courtesy of the Associated Press

Player to Watch:  Thabo Sefolosha (pictured at right) – On a lineup filled with four solid players, it is often easy to forget Thabo is OKC’s fifth starter.  A defensive specialist, Thabo is an excellent one on one defender and is often put on the opponent’s best guard on that end of the court.  Thabo is also a very good rebounder but that is where his strengths end.  His offensive instincts aren’t great and he is a horribly inconsistent outside shooter.  Still, he is something else Portland must reckon with Friday.

Did You Know?:  OKC has a point differential of 9.2 points per game, only six teams have ever done better over the course of a season and all six won the NBA title.

Song of the Day:  “Get Down with the Sickness” by Distributed.  In honor of all of our injuries, this seemed strangely appropriate.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out – SG Elliott Williams (Achillies), Questionable-SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), C JJ Hickson (Back), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Illness).

OKC: None.

Re-Evaluating OKC: Can They Win it All?

OKC fell just one step short of their ultimate goal last season, falling in the NBA finals to a Miami Heat team that was simply better than they were.  A year later, the question is whether they can take that final step this year.  They surely can but will they?  Probably not.  Miami really is that much better than everyone else in the NBA this year and if they are healthy, it is hard to see the Heat losing four games out of seven to anyone, even this team.  All this assumes of course that OKC makes it that far, no sure thing with the deep western conference playoff field.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They hold Westbrook/Durant to under 50 combined points. This is not going to be easy, but when OKC’s dynamic duo was held under the 50 point mark last season, they were beatable. If Portland is to beat OKC, they will have to make someone besides OKC’s two best players do it.

Oklahoma City wins if: They shoot at least 30 free throws.  The Thunder excel at getting to the line and making their FTs once they get there (almost everyone on the team except Perkins is a great FT shooter) and when they manage 30 attempts a game, they nearly always prevail.

Team Records: LA Lakers (41-37) at Portland (33-44)

Game Info: 7 PM-TV on KGW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: Lakers -5

Refs: Tom Washington, Matt Boland, Kane Fitzgerald

The Skinny: The Blazers look to pull a rabbit out of a hat as they look to take what is left of their injury-riddled lineup and pull off a win that would likely be fatal to LA’s playoff hopes.  The Lakers are currently leading the Jazz by a half game for the final playoff spot.

Last Time They Met: Refs+Kobe=Lakers win that shouldn’t have been. 

Projected Lakers Lineup:

PF-Pau Gasol (Spain-12^th Season)-13.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.7 APG.

SF-Earl Clark (Louisville-4^th Season) 7.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 APG.

C-Dwight Howard (Southwest Atlanta Christian (HS)-9^th Season)-16.7 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 1.4 APG

SG-Kobe Bryant (Lower Merion (HS)-17^th Season)-27 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 6.1 APG.

PG-Steve Blake (Maryland-10^th Season)-6.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.7 APG.

Image Courtesy of www.interbasket.net

Player to Watch-Pau Gasol (pictured at right)-  It has not been the season Pau Gasol would have wanted.  He has been hurt much of it, playing in only 44 games this year, and has been less than stellar when he has played.  Gasol’s PER this year is a full five points below his worst previous year (last year) and his production is down in all categories.  Still, even a diminished Pau Gasol is dangerous and Portland will have to closely watch him on Wednesday.

Did You Know?: Kobe Bryant recently passed Wilt Chamberlain for 4^th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.  Next up is Michael Jordan, about a thousand points away for Kobe.

Song of the Day: “Now You’re a Man” from the movie Orgazamo.  This NSFW song has been running through my head all day.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), Doubtful-SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), Questionable-C JJ Hickson (Back).

LA Lakers: Out- C Jordan Hill (Hip), Doubtful-PG Steve Nash (Hamstring).

Re-Evaluating the Lakers: A Season of LA Shortfalls

The Lakers are not the only LA team that has vastly underperformed expectations this year, in fact that were the rule in much of the LA sports scene, with only the MLS’s LA Galaxy living up to their expectations in winning their second straight title (and the NHL’s Kings coming out of nowhere to win it all).  UCLA basketball was recently bounced in their first tournament game and their coach was fired despite a highly rated recruiting class, both the LA Angels and Dodgers failed to make the playoffs last year despite much heralded acquisitions and USC football set a new record for most losses by a preseason #1 team.  So you see, the Lakers aren’t any different than most LA teams expected to do well this year, as they have fallen well short of expectations.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if:  They make the Lakers selfish.  The key to beating Kobe has always been to make him beat you with his shot, which deadly as it is, isn’t quite as effective as when Kobe is moving the ball to open shooters.  It’s a long shot but frankly with the talent deficit the Blazers have, it’s the best chance they’ve got.

LA Lakers win if: They play their game.  The Lakers are the better team and if they come in and play anywhere close to their potential, they should come out with a fairly easy win.

Team Records: Dallas (37-39) at Portland (33-43)

Game Info: 6 p.m., TV on KGW, Radio on 1190 AM/102.3 FM

Vegas Line: Dallas -3.5

Refs: Bennett Salvatore, David Guthrie, Derek Richardson

The Skinny: The Blazers look to end their seven game skid with their only remaining game against a non-playoff opponent as they face the Mavericks at home on Sunday night  Dallas was essentially eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Lakers a few nights ago.

Last Time They Met: Dallas held off a furious Portland charge late as they defeated the Blazers in a hard fought game down in Dallas.

Projected Mavericks Lineup:

PF: Dirk Nowitzki (Germany, 15^th season) – 17.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.4 APG

SF: Shawn Marion (UNLV, 14^th season) – 11.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.4 APG

C:  Chris Kaman (Central Michigan, 10^th Season) – 10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, .8 APG

SG: OJ Mayo (USC, 5^th season) – 15.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.4 APG

PG: Mike James (Duquesne, 11^th season) – 5.8 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 3.1 APG

Image Courtesy of bigstory.ap.org

Player to Watch:  Chris Kaman (pictured at right) – Its hard to believe Chris Kaman was once an all star the way he is playing of late.  He has had a decent season when healthy and he has been healthy more than not this year.  Kaman is a good midrange scorer, but most of his value is on defense. He is a good low-post defender and a reasonably strong shot blocker and rebounder. Kaman might not be Dallas’s best player but he’s a pest for sure.

Did You Know?: Dirk needs 59 points to become the 17^th player in NBA history to score 25,000 career points.

Song of the Day: “That’ll be the Day” by Buddy Holly-One of my favorite songs and a reminder that although today might not be the day for either of these teams to make a playoff run, hopefully that day will come.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out – SG Elliott Williams (Achilles), SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder).

Dallas: Out-C Chris Kaman (Concussion), Questionable-SG Vince Carter (Illness).

Re-Evaluating Dallas: End of an Era

When the final buzzer sounded in LA this week, it marked the end of more than just one game, but the likely end of Dallas’s run as an NBA contender.  This year will be the first year Dallas has missed the playoffs since the 1999-2000 season, a run which included a surprise NBA title and firmly established the Mavs as a team to fear in the NBA.  Whether or not Dirk retires this season (and all indications are he’ll be back for at least one more year), let us all salute Dallas as the most successful era in their franchise’s history comes to an end.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They limit Dallas’s 3 point shooting.  The Mavs live and die by the jump shot.  Make them attack you inside and they become far less effective.  If Portland can do so, they should win.

Dallas wins if: They hold Portland under 90 points.  The Mavs typically win because of good defense.  If they can hold Portland under 90, they will almost certainly prevail tomorrow.

Team Records: Houston (42-33) at Portland (33-42)

Game Info: 7:30 p.m., TV on CSNNW/ESPN, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM

Vegas Line: Houston -6

Refs: Mike Callahan, Brian Forte, Ed Malloy

The Skinny: The Blazers look to end their six game losing skid as they welcome in a Rockets team that is all but ensured of their first playoff bid since the 2008-09 season.  The Rockets come in fresh off of a surprisingly narrow win in Sacramento and have won three straight. 

Last Time They Met: The Rockets buried the Blazers early under a barrage of 3 pointers and didn’t let up, going 12-26 from distance as they cruised to an easy home win over the Blazers.

Projected Rockets Lineup:

PF: Greg Smith (Fresno State, 2^nd season) – 5.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, .3 APG

SF: Chandler Parsons (Florida, 2^nd season) – 15.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.5 APG

C: Omer Asik (Turkey, 3^rd season) – 10.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG, .9 APG

SG: James Harden (Arizona State, 4^th season) – 25.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.9 APG

PG: Jeremy Lin (Harvard, 3^rd season) – 13 PPG, 3 RPG, 6.1 APG

Image Courtesy of Zimbio.com

Player to Watch:  Chandler Parsons (pictured at right) – There weren’t a whole lot who expected much out of this 2011 second round pick but the Rockets seem to have found a gem in Parsons.  Parsons is an improving shooter who has great size and athleticism for his position, sporting an impressive 57.9% true shooting % this season.  He has improved from an atrocious 56% free throw shooter his rookie season to an acceptable 72% from the line this season.  His defense could use some work but that is more the product of lack of experience than anything else.  Parsons is yet another solid player the Rockets have managed to acquire for virtually no cost.

Did You Know?: After their mid-season trade of Patrick Patterson, Chandler Parsons is now the longest tenured player on the Rockets roster.

Song of the Day:  “The Bear and the Maiden Fair” from the Game of Thornes.  Okay so I think Game of Thrones is awesome and as a result, this song is awesome.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out – SG Elliott Williams (Achilles), Doubtful-SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder/Arm), Probable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

Houston: Questionable-SG Carlos Delfino (Foot).

Re-Evaluating Houston: Punting for the Future?

When the Rockets traded Patrick Patterson and others to the Kings in exchange for disgruntled first round pick Thomas Robinson, they made a move that, although strong for the future if Robinson develops was nonetheless not exactly kind to the present. Patterson was a key player on a team that was growing and succeeding and perhaps, some argued, there is such a thing as too much roster turnover in one year?  In my opinion, this is not much of a real worry.  Robinson has enough potential upside and Houston enough cap flexibility this offseason that if he develops into anything it could turn out to be one of the best deals the Rockets have ever made. Far from punting for the future, it maybe hurt them for one year at most.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They limit second chance points.  The Rockets, especially Asik, feast on second chance opportunities.  If the Blazers can limit those, they should be able to make life difficult for Houston and come out with a win.

Houston wins if: They make their 3s.  The Rockets don’t have to make 23 3s (as they did vs. the Warriors not too long ago) to beat Portland, far from it, but if they can shoot a reasonable percentage in making 10-15, they should prevail.

Team Records: Memphis (50-24) at Portland (33-41)

Game Info: 7 p.m., TV on CSNNW/NBATV, radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: Memphis -4

Refs: Tony Brothers, Pat Fraher, Courtney Kirkland

The Skinny: The Blazers look to rebound from their fifth straight loss as they open a long home stand against playoff contenders against the surging Grizzlies.  Memphis has won three straight and is in a tough battle with Denver and the LA Clippers for the 3-5 seeds in the west.

Last Time They Met: It was a familiar tale for the Blazers as they dug themselves a big hole, made a nice run but were unable to climb out as Memphis won in Portland.

Projected Grizzlies Lineup: 

PF: Zach Randolph (Michigan State, 12^th season) – 15.5 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.5 APG

SF: Tayshaun Prince (Kentucky, 11^th season) – 10.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.5 APG

C: Marc Gasol (Spain, 5^th season) – 14.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.9 APG

SG: Tony Allen (Oklahoma State, 9^th season) – 9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.2 APG

PG: Michael Conley (Ohio State, 6^th season) – 14.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.2 APG

Image Courtesy of Zimbio.com

Player to Watch: Michael Conley (pictured at right) – A few years into his career Conley was hardly impressing anyone, turning the ball over too much, having trouble defending players and often exhibiting really poor shot selection.  How times have changed.  Conley is an improving floor general with great hands and quickness, along with a good outside shot (that he is finally using at a good rate).  Conley is also excellent at forcing steals and although he is otherwise not a very good defender, those steals often lead to easy Memphis points, important for a team that can stagnate at times on offense.  He will be a challenge for Portland on Wednesday.

Did You Know?: Memphis is 17-6 since the all star break, good for the third best record in the NBA during that span.

Song of the Day: “Tonight, Tonight” by the Smashing Pumpkins.  With their playoff hopes gone, the Blazers had best treasure each one of the remaining games this season and this song captures this mood.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out – SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), Questionable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

Memphis: None

Re-Evaluating Memphis: Does Home Court Matter to Memphis?

There is no doubt that every NBA team would rather play as many playoff games as possible at home but it matters more for some teams, Denver say, than others.  For Memphis, they have been pretty consistent both away from home and at home this year and their upset of the Spurs two years ago in the playoffs show they don’t mind winning playoff games on the road.  So while it may be preferable that Memphis have home court in this year’s playoffs, it is by no means a necessity for this bunch.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They take care of the ball. If Portland doesn’t turn the ball against Memphis, they will take away Memphis’ primary offensive weapon and stand a good chance of beating them.

Memphis wins if: They are able to stretch the Portland defense. Memphis is not a great jump shooting team. If they can reverse that, get hot tonight and stretch the Portland defense, opening up the inside to easy baskets, they should be able to score enough points to win.

Team Records: Portland (33-40) at Utah (38-36)

Game Info: 6 PM-TV on CSNNW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: Utah -9

Refs: Bennett Salvatore, Dick Bavetta, David Guthrie 

The Skinny: After getting blown out by a superior Warriors team in Oakland Saturday night, the Blazers conclude their two game mini-road trip in Utah Monday.  Portland will look to secure a season-series split against a Jazz team needing wins to maintain a lead over the Lakers for the West’s final playoff spot.  Utah has now won four straight after having lost four straight prior to their current streak.

Last Time They Met: Portland played well through in the first half but Aldridge’s absence cost them dearly as Utah simply wore down the Blazers and pulled away late to secure a win in Portland.

Projected Jazz Lineup:

PF-Paul Millsap (Louisiana Tech-7^th Season) 14.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.6 APG.

SF-Gordon Hayward (Butler-3^rd Season)-14.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.9 APG.

C-Al Jefferson (Prentiss (HS)-9^th Season)-17.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 APG

SG-Randy Foye (Villanova-7^th Season)-10.8 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 2 APG.

PG-Mo Williams (Alabama-10^th Season)-12.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 6.3 APG.

Image Courtesy of NBA.com

Player to Watch: Randy Foye (pictured at right) – It is perhaps only an accident that this one time Blazers draft pick (traded immediately on draft day) has a name that rhymes with the player he was traded for, Brandon Roy. Beyond that, there is little to compare the two players, even when Roy was playing and playing extremely well.  At his best, Foye is basically a solid spot up shooter who doesn’t turn the ball over very much.  Beyond that, however, his abilities are limited as Foye is a poor defender, can’t rebound well and even though he shoots well from the line doesn’t do a good job drawing fouls. If Utah wants to improve, Foye is probably not the answer for them as starting SG.

Did You Know?:  The Jazz won last year’s season series over Portland and have not won consecutive season series over the Blazers since the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons. 

Song of the Day: “Salt Lake City” by the Beach Boys-Not exactly one of their best known songs but the Beach Boys did release this song back in 1965.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliott Williams (Achilles), PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

Utah: Out-C Enes Kanter (Shoulder).

Re-Evaluating Utah: Playoff Chances

Utah made the playoffs last year after a furious late season charge but their stay was short-lived, as they were swept by the Jazz in a series where frankly the outcome of no individual game, let alone the series as a whole, was ever truly in doubt. With a likely rematch this year versus the Spurs or possibly against the Thunder should they make the playoffs, will Utah fare much better?  Probably not, as the most the Jazz will probably win is one game, the Thunder and Spurs are simply that much better than they are and it is hard to see the Jazz as being little more than a proverbial speed bump for OKC or SA as those teams race towards a possible NBA title.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if: They get something resembling balance on offense.  No one player on Portland can beat a quality opponent like Utah alone especially without Aldridge playing.

Utah wins if: They score 100 points.  Utah is very hard to beat when they top the century mark and if they do it Monday, they probably win.