With the draft lottery tomorrow, its time for us to do a brief preview of the lottery process and possible outcomes.

Brandon Roy Poses After Winning the 2007 Draft Lottery. Picture Courtesy of Thescore.com

The Basics:

Date/Time: 5:30 PM, Tuesday, May 21, 2013.

TV: ESPN/ESPN3 online.

The Lottery Process:

On the day of the draft lottery, about an hour before the lottery results are broadcast the actual lottery is conducted.  The actual lottery is conducted backstage by the accounting firm Ernst and Young with representatives from each team present.  These representatives are forbidden from communicating the results with anyone until after they are aired.

14 lottery balls are used for this draw, and the order in which they are drawn does not matter. This creates 1,001 possible outcomes, one of which is kept as an empty set and the other 1,000 are assigned to teams.  Each team receives a set number of winning combinations based on their record, the detailed odds chart for this year’s lottery is below:

Notes:

a-Portland’s pick goes to Charlotte if it falls outside the top 12.  Odds of Portland retaining pick 99.9%

b-Toronto’s pick goes to OKC if its not in the top 3.  Odds of Toronto retaining pick: 3% 

Here is the process, step by step:

1. 14 lottery balls, numbered 1-14, are placed in a standard lottery machine.
2. The balls are allowed to circulate for 20 seconds before the first ball is drawn, the next three balls are drawn at 10 second intervals.
3. Lottery officials check to see who owns the resulting combination, if it is not the empty set the owner of that combination receives the #1 overall pick.
4. The process is repeated twice more for the #2 and #3 picks.  If a team which has already won a pick gets one of its combinations drawn (or the empty set), the process is repeated until three distinct winners are found.  No team this year may win more than one top three pick since no one has multiple lottery picks.
5. The remainder of the lottery teams are ordered in the reverse of their record, with the worst team that didn’t win a pick getting the fourth selection, the second worst fifth and so on.

So grab your lucky token, whatever it is, and hope that the Blazers can beat the odds to get a top 3 pick!

This is our preview of the western conference opening round.  Read it and tell us what you think. 

#1 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Houston

Series Headline: OKC Looks to Sweep Aside Rockets as They Aim for Finals Return

Series Begins: Sunday

Season Series:  OKC Won 2-1

OKC Last Season: Western Conference Champions

OKC’s Biggest Edge: The one-two punch of Durant and Westbrook on offense, the firepower of Martin off the bench and Ibaka’s presence inside on defense are ample reason to believe OKC can beat anyone any night.

Houston Last Season: Missed Playoffs

Houston’s Biggest Edge: When Harden gets going, watch out, he can pile up points in a big hurry.

OKC wins if: They make players not named James Harden beat them.

Houston wins if: Harden gets and stays hot the entire series and they get enough from Lin and Parsons to compliment him. 

Upset Chance: 25%

The Pick: OKC in 5, Houston will win one because Harden will get really hot one night but that’s all for the Rockets.

#4 LA Clippers vs. #5 Memphis

Series Headline: Clippers and Grizzlies Meet for the Second Straight Playoffs in a Battle of Contrasting Styles  

Series Begins: Saturday

Season Series: Clippers won 3-1

LA Clippers Last Season: Lost in the Second Round

LA Clipper’s Biggest Edge: Griffin might provide highlights but it is CP3 that will determine how far the Clippers go, when he’s on he is the best PG in the NBA. 

Memphis Last Season: Lost in the First Round

Memphis’s Biggest Edge: When Memphis is playing their best, they force turnovers and convert them into easy baskets, frustrating you and taking you out of your rhythm.

LA Clippers win if: They score at or close to 100 points a game, this is a series that will likely be decided on which team’s pace prevails.  The Clippers want a faster paced higher scoring game.

Memphis wins if: They hold the Clippers under 90 game, Memphis loves ugly, slug ‘em out games and they need to play that way to win this series.

Upset Chance: 45%

The Pick: Clippers in 7, it’ll be close but the result will be the same as last year with the Clippers moving on.

 #3 Denver vs. #6 Golden State

Series Headline: Wounded Nuggets Look to Ride Home Court Advantage to Series Win Over Warriors

Series Begins: Saturday

Season Series: Denver won 3-1

Denver Last Season: Lost in the First Round

Denver’s Biggest Edge: The Nuggets beat you not with one player, but with many and even with their injuries, they can be counted on to rely on many different players to carry the load each night.  Oh and they haven’t lost at home since January 18.

Golden State Last Season: Missed Playoffs

Golden State’s Biggest Edge: When Curry and Klay Thompson are feeling it, they bury threes at a rate that almost no team, save Houston, can hope to match.

Denver wins if: They make someone besides Curry beat them, Klay Thompson and David Lee are good and all but if they can limit Curry, they stand a great chance of winning.

Golden State wins if: They can somehow steal a game in Denver, if they can steal one of the first two on the road, Golden State has a chance.

Upset Chance: 30%

The Pick: Nuggets in 5, they are still the better team and although this will be a fun series, it won’t be a long one.

#2 San Antonio vs. #7 LA Lakers

Series Headline: Spurs Look to Derail Kobe-Less Lakers Title Hopes

Series Begins: Sunday

Season Series: San Antonio won 2-1

San Antonio Last Season: Lost in the Western Conference Finals

San Antonio’s Biggest Edge:  Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA today and he always has his team in the best position to win, oh and there is this future hall of famer named Tim Duncan who is playing like he’s a much younger player to boot.

LA Lakers Last Season: Lost in the Second Round

LA Laker’s Biggest Edge: If Dwight Howard is playing as he has in the past, he is the one player the Spurs don’t have a prayer of stopping on defense.

San Antonio wins if: They take advantage of LA’s weak D and simply outscore them.  The Lakers suck on defense this season and if the Spurs can make them pay for that, they should win.

LA Lakers win if: Pau and Dwight dominate inside and Steve Nash plays his best, without Kobe the Lakers have to ride every possible advantage they have and those three are it.

Upset Chance: 35%

The Pick: Spurs in 5, could the Lakers beat the Spurs?  Sure they could.  Will they without Kobe?  Nope.

This is the first in our preview series for this year’s playoffs.  Today we talk about the first round out east and tomorrow we’ll switch to the West.

#1 Miami vs. #8 Milwaukee

Series Headline: Miami Looks for Easy Start to Title Defense

Series Begins: Sunday

Season Series: Miami won 3-1

Miami Last Season: NBA Champions

Miami’s Biggest Edge: Do you really have to ask?  Miami has the best player in the game in LeBron James and with Wade and Bosh both healthy, the only question is whether even two of their big three need to be on form for the Heat to prevail.

Milwaukee Last Season: Missed Playoffs

Milwaukee’s Biggest Edge: Jennings and Ellis can make a lot of 3s in a row when they get hot and Larry Sanders is a great shot blocker.

Miami wins if: They play their game even reasonably well.

Milwaukee wins if: A meteor strikes the Miami Heat’s practice facility, vaporizing the entire big 3 and leaving the rest of the roster intact.

Upset Chance: 0.00000000000000000000000000001%

The Pick: Miami in 4, without a doubt.

#4 Brooklyn vs. #5 Chicago

Series Headline: Brooklyn and Chicago Look to Fight for the Right to Face Miami

Series Begins: Saturday

Season Series: Chicago won 3-1

Brooklyn Last Season: Missed Playoffs

Brooklyn’s Biggest Edge: Brook Lopez is a strong interior player and the backcourt duo of Johnson and Deron Williams can provide a much needed scoring punch. 

Chicago Last Season: Lost in the First Round

Chicago’s Biggest Edge: They are really freaking good at defense, and almost every player on their roster plays it well.

Brooklyn wins if: They score at or close to 100 points a game.

Chicago wins if: Joakim Noah plays his best ball and they score enough on offense to allow their strong defense to win them games.

Upset Chance: 55%

The Pick: Bulls in 6, Brooklyn just doesn’t feel like a team I trust.

 #3 Indiana vs. #6 Atlanta

Series Headline: Pacers and Hawks Slug it Out in a Battle of Two of the NBA’s Uglier Teams

Series Begins: Sunday

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Indiana Last Season: Lost in the Second Round

Indiana’s Biggest Edge: The Pacers do a great job moving the ball to open shooters on offense and on defense, Hibert does a good job protecting the rim.

Atlanta Last Season: Lost in the First Round

Atlanta’s Biggest Edge: When he chooses to attack the rim rather than settle for outside jumpers, Josh Smith can be an absolute beast on offense, and when he’s dialed on offense he often is on defense as well.

Indiana wins if: They get a decent contribution from their bench and start games reasonably well (Indiana has been down 20 points or more in six straight games).

Atlanta wins if: Josh Smith plays like the best player on the court, which he is, and Kyle Korver makes 3s at a good clip.

Upset Chance: 60%

The Pick: Hawks in 6, the Pacers have looked awful as of late but this series will be close, but I’m betting Atlanta prevails.

#2 New York vs. #7 Boston

Series Headline: New York and Boston Resume Old Rivalry as Knicks Look to Break Playoff Series Drought

Series Begins: Saturday

Season Series: New York won 3-1

New York Last Season: Lost in the First Round

New York’s Biggest Edge: When Carmelo Anthony is dialed in, there is no one that can stop him and he often leads a parade of talented three point shooters for New York, including sixth man of the year contender JR Smith. 

Boston Last Season: Lost in the Eastern Conference Final

Boston’s Biggest Edge: Pierce and Garnett just seem to know how to grind out wins despite the odds, veteran presence might be overrated in many cases but its not for these two.

New York wins if: They make 3s at their normal clip.

Boston wins if: They slow down New York and use their defense to win them games.

Upset Chance: 49%

The Pick: Knicks in 7, this isn’t your usual 2-7 matchup and this should be a great series but give the slightest of edges to New York.

Team Records: Golden State (46-35) at Portland (33-48)

Game Info: 7:30 PM-TV on KGW, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: Golden State -8

Refs: Bill Spooner, Violet Palmer, Leon Wood

The Skinny: The Blazers look to head into the offseason with a win and end their long losing streak as they face the Warriors to close out their 2012-13 campaign.  The Warriors need the win to ensure them of the #6 seed in the west and a likely matchup with Denver.   

Last Time They Met: Steph Curry was awesome and the Blazers had no chance as Golden State rolled.

Projected Warriors Lineup:

PF-David Lee (Florida-8^th Season) 18.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.6 APG.

SF-Harrison Barnes (North Carolina-Rookie)-9.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.2 APG.

C-Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt-Rookie)-2.5 PPG, 4 RPG, .3 APG

SG-Klay Thompson (Washington State-2^nd Season)-16.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG.

PG-Stephen Curry (Davidson-4^th Season)-23 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 6.9 APG.

Image Courtesy of NBA.com

Player to Watch-David Lee (pictured at right) – Confidence is not a problem for David Lee, who firmly believes he has deserved to be an all-star for several years.  He has made it twice and has complained mightily when he didn’t.  Lee is a very good player on offense, can make shots anywhere from midrange to close to the rim and is a nice counterpoint to Golden State’s plethora of outside shooters. He is an excellent rebounder at both ends as well.  His defense leaves a lot to be desired but for a team that is so strong offensively this hardly matters.

Did You Know?: Golden State will make the playoffs this year for only the second time in the least nineteen years.

Song of the Day: “Good Riddance (Time of Your Life)” by Green Day-A fitting song as we bid goodbye to another Blazers season.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), Doubtful- SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), PG Nolan Smith (Knee), Questionable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

Golden State: Out- SG Brandon Rush (ACL/MCL), C Andris Biedrins (Back), Questionable-C Andrew Bogut (Ankle), SF Draymond Green (Knee).

Re-Evaluating Golden State: Playoff Bound at Last

Golden State has great fans and they have been fun to watch but they haven’t sniffed the playoffs much in the past two decades, making it only once in the eighteen seasons prior to this one (which ended with a surprise second round run after upsetting Dallas).  Whether or not they make a deep run this year, they look to not have to wait as long between appearances this time.  With their young core, it looks like Golden State is here to stay as far as the playoffs go.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if:  They make their 3 pointers.  The Warriors are a stingy team from deep and as Portland relies heavily on the 3, if they can make their deep shots, they should be able to end the season with a win.

Golden State wins if: They hold Portland under 100 points.  The Warriors are going to score a lot of points and at their pace if they can keep Portland under the century mark, they should win.

Team Records: Portland (33-47) at LA Clippers (54-26)

Game Info: 7:30 PM-TV on TNT, Radio on 1190 AM and 102.3 FM.

Vegas Line: LA Clippers -14

Refs: Ron Garretson, Sean Corbin, Eric Dalen

The Skinny:  The Blazers face their final road game of the season as they travel to LA to take on the first-time division champ Clippers.  The Clippers are still fighting for playoff positioning, needing a win to maintain control of home court advantage in the first round.

Last Time They Met: The Clippers got revenge for a loss the previous night in the second half of a home and home as they pulled away from Portland early and coasted to an easy win.

Projected Clippers Lineup:

PF-Blake Griffin (Oklahoma-3^rd Season) 18.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.8 APG.

SF-Caron Butler- (Connecticut-11^th Season)-10.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1 APG.

C-DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M-5^th  Season)-8.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, .4 APG

SG-Willie Green (Detroit Mercy-10^th Season)-6.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG, .8 APG.

PG-Chris Paul (Wake Forest-8^th Season)-17 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 9.6 APG.

Image Courtesy of usatoday.com

Player to Watch-Chris Paul (pictured at right) – There is a reason Chris Paul is jokingly referred to by some as the “Point God”, he’s simply the best point guard in the game today.  CP3 is pretty much great at everything he does, whether it is ball handling, passing, shooting or forcing steals.  About the only thing he doesn’t do extremely well is rebound, but considering that he has Jordan and Griffin on this team, that is hardly a problem. You can think you have him beat only to watch Chris Paul pull out some weird jujitsu that makes you look on in awe.  If the Clippers are going to make any sort of playoff run, it will be because of CP3.

Did You Know?: The Clippers won their first-ever division title this year.

Song of the Day: “More Than a Feeling” by Boston.  In honor of the victims of Monday’s Boston bombings, it seemed appropriate to play the signature song of one of that city’s best known bands.  Enjoy:

Injury Updates:

Portland: Out-SG Elliot Williams (Achilles), Doubtful- SF Nicolas Batum (Shoulder), SG Wesley Matthews (Ankle), PG Nolan Smith (Knee), Questionable-PF LaMarcus Aldridge (Ankle).

LA Clippers: Questionable-PG Chauncey Billups (Groin).

Re-Evaluating the Clippers: Living in the Shadow of the Lakers

When the Clippers won their first-ever division title recently, their fans rightly celebrated but were perhaps just as rightly mocked by the Lakers, who pointed out that they had won sixteen NBA titles and that their fellow Staples Center occupants really hadn’t accomplished much.  While it is true that the Clippers will never equal the Lakers history, their winning tradition, or even their vaunted “celebrity row”, they should take pride in living in the moment and perhaps take a little guide from Manchester City of the EPL.  When City won its first ever premier league title last season, their fans reveled in the rare moment where they put one over on the most successful club in world soccer history, Manchester United, which had won twelve Premier League titles.  To City fans, and to Clippers fans should they ever win one, it did not matter that their rival had more of a winning tradition than they could ever hope to achieve, what mattered is that at that time, in that moment, they were on top of their sport and could finally look down on their far more heralded rivals.

The Bottom Line:

Portland wins if:  They score 100 points.  The Blazers often struggle offensively on the road.  Still if they can somehow get to 100 points, it should be enough to get the win.

LA Clippers win if: They make their 3s.   When the Clippers make their 3s they are nearly impossible to beat.